Consumer shifts in retail: how to test them in your own market

A global list of consumer shifts is a starting point. Here is how to test five of them in your own market, one level at a time.

Global consumer shifts travel well in reports. They travel less well between markets. A development can be strong in one country and category, and absent in the next.

How the test works

Demand forecasts reach up to 12 months ahead at category, type and specification level. Anything further is a scenario and not a measurement. That makes the test suitable for your next planning round, and that is its purpose.

Work through four steps for each shift:

• Translate it. Rewrite the shift as a claim about your category and country.
• Read from broad to narrow. Look at the category first, then the type, then the specification.
• Separate signal from result. Measured orientation shows how demand develops, and your sales show what was realised.
• Name the decision. Say what you would do differently, before you look at the numbers.

The product examples below are illustrative. Replace them with your own range.

Health and wellness

The Global Wellness Institute reports that the wellness economy reached $6.8 trillion in 2024. That is a global figure across many sectors. It does not tell you which health needs are growing in your range.

• Category: how is demand for breakfast cereals expected to develop over the next 12 months?
• Type: is high-protein granola growing faster than the category as a whole?
• Specification: does "no added sugar" gain ground, or does it stay stable?

Decision: which health-related products get shelf space and marketing budget in the next range review.

Moving between channels

People move between online and physical channels, and some brands build for that. A 2023 industry article describes how Starbucks connects online ordering, store pick-up, payment and its loyalty programme in one app. That is one design choice, in a category with frequent purchases.

• Category: in which months is demand for mattresses expected to peak?
• Type: which types, such as hybrid mattresses, gain ground ahead of that peak?
• Specification: which sizes gain ground, so that the right stock sits in the right channel?

Add your own data here. It shows where customers switch channels, and where they drop out.

Decision: how to divide stock, staff and media across stores and online for the coming season.

Social commerce

Social platforms are places where people discover and compare products, and sometimes buy them. Platform rules also change. In 2023, Meta announced that businesses without checkout-enabled Shops would lose product tagging, starting in some markets. A plan that rests on one feature carries that risk.

• Category: is demand for sun care expected to rise early enough to plan creator work around it?
• Type: does a type such as sun sticks gain ground across several months, or only spike?
• Specification: which details gain ground alongside it, such as SPF 50?

Decision: whether to fund creator work for one type, and which message it should carry.

AI in customer service

AI assistants can answer more customer questions at any hour. How well they do so depends on the question. Demand shows you what people are weighing up before they contact you, which helps you prepare the answers.

• Category: is demand for washing machines expected to rise, which could bring more questions?
• Type: which types are gaining ground, such as washer-dryers, and are they more complex to explain?
• Specification: which details do people weigh up, such as capacity or a heat pump?

Decision: which questions an assistant can answer well, and where you still need a person.

Inclusive ranges

Some customer groups look for a category without finding an offer that suits them. Fenty Beauty made this concrete in 2017. A 2023 article on its marketing notes that its foundation debuted in 40 shades, as proof of its inclusion promise. That is one brand's launch, not a rule for yours.

• Category: how is demand for complexion make-up expected to develop over the next 12 months?
• Type: is foundation gaining or losing ground against tinted moisturiser?
• Specification: do shade groups you do not offer gain ground?

Decision: whether to extend your range, or to communicate better about what you already offer.

What this means for your next decision

Choose the two or three shifts that would affect your business most. You do not need all five. A shift with no movement in your category is a useful result too. It frees people and budget for something else.

Your retail and sales data shows realised sales by channel or product. Trendata's Demand Intelligence adds demand and needs before they become sales, also outside your own assortment. It runs 2-6 months earlier than internal performance data such as marketing, sales, CRM and finance.

Together, market demand, customer needs and brand position show where to focus people, budget and capacity. Start with one shift, and test it this month.