AI agents still send European retailers little traffic. The choices they shape happen earlier, where your analytics cannot look.
What is agentic commerce?
Agentic commerce covers every purchase where software does part of the choosing. It starts with an assistant that compares products. It ends with an agent that pays.
Most of the market sits in the middle. Emerce reports that Carrefour was first in Europe with a shopping assistant inside ChatGPT, and Salling Group follows with Gemini. In the Netherlands, bol's Shophulp fills the basket. The shopper still finishes in the regular checkout.
Emerce describes agentic commerce as a ladder of seven levels. Level 3 is guided buying: the agent helps and the shopper checks out. Level 4 is direct buying inside the agent.
Three protocols aim at that fourth level. Visa has the Trusted Agent Protocol. Google and Shopify back the Universal Commerce Protocol. OpenAI and Stripe back the Agentic Commerce Protocol, which Mollie has joined.
The Emerce piece comes from an e-commerce director at a media agency. Read it as a practitioner's view, not as neutral research.
Why does 1% understate the shift?
BCG puts referrals from external agents below 1% of website visits in late 2025. At current growth, it expects that share to reach 5% by the end of 2026.
Those counts miss the shopper who chooses inside an AI platform, then types your address. BCG estimates that behaviour can lift the real effect to four times the referral figure. Your dashboard files that visit under direct traffic and takes the credit.
A referral only counts when someone clicks a link inside the AI tool. Many shoppers do not click. They read the answer, form a shortlist and arrive later through a brand search or a typed address.
At BCG's upper estimate, 5% in referrals would mean up to 20% of visits shaped by an agent. That multiplication is ours, not a BCG figure. It shows the order of magnitude, not a measurement.
BCG looks at leading European brands and retailers. Your own share can differ, so measure it before you quote it.
The referral report measures the last step of a decision made somewhere else.
That is the real issue. A referral report sees the end of orientation. The shortlist formed earlier, in a place your own systems never see.
How many Dutch shoppers use AI to buy?
Between a quarter and more than half, depending on the question asked. Deloitte found 55% of Dutch consumers use AI for shopping activities. Only 25% use it to compare products. Treat any single headline number with care.
| 25% | used AI when shopping in the past year. Adyen, 2,000 Dutch consumers, early 2025. |
| 55% | use AI for shopping activities. Deloitte, 1,000 Dutch respondents, May 2026. |
| 57% | use AI instead of search engines for product research. bol, March 2026. No method published. |
| 42% | used an AI tool to shop in the past month. A 2026 consumer study, United States only. |
The gaps come from timing, wording and who asked. bol also runs its own AI assistant, so it has a stake in the answer.
The pattern underneath is stable. Use is broad and delegation is narrow. BCG finds 53% of European consumers expect to use agents when shopping. Only 4% would let one complete a purchase alone.
Deloitte finds 31% open to letting AI make the final purchase and 47% unwilling. BCG's 4% is far lower. Openness in a survey is not the same as handing over the decision.
In the United States, a 2026 consumer study reports 5% have used fully autonomous agents to place orders. That is close to BCG's figure.
So the agent rarely buys. It decides what gets considered. For a brand, that is the larger exposure.
Are retailers ready for AI shopping agents?
Mostly not. A Swiss FHNW study cited by Emerce finds 74% of online retailers have no agentic commerce strategy. Only 2% have implemented one fully. The Omnichannel Index 2026 scores AI as the weakest discipline across 373 European brands, at 19%.
BCG names the practical work. Keep product, price, stock and delivery data structured and current through feeds and APIs. Make loyalty benefits comparable for agents. Keep exclusive rewards for direct visitors.
The Omnichannel Index finds 42% of brands structure product pages so agents can read them reliably. In the Netherlands, 7% support natural-language search. The index comes from IMPACT Commerce and Google, and it reached Emerce as a submitted press release.
What should marketing and category leaders do now?
Three moves matter more than a new channel plan. For a midsize brand, manufacturer or retailer, they also set where budget and people go first.
- Stop reading referrals alone. Report them next to brand search and direct traffic. Watch how the three move together.
- Look outside your own systems. Your data starts when someone reaches you. Demand Intelligence looks at orientation moments before that point. These are moments when people look into products, needs and brands, explore alternatives and prepare choices.
- Make the product legible. Agents compare what they can parse. Clean product data is now a marketing asset, not an IT task.
Agentic commerce will not arrive as one launch date. It arrives as a slow change in who makes the shortlist. To see how your visibility holds up, read our guide to generative engine optimization.
Frequently asked questions
Is agentic commerce the same as AI search?
No. AI search answers a question. Agentic commerce goes further: the agent compares, fills a basket or buys. AI search is usually where it starts.
How big is agentic commerce in Europe?
Small in direct traffic and larger in influence. BCG puts agent referrals under 1% of visits in late 2025, with 5% possible by the end of 2026. It estimates the real effect at up to four times the referral figure.
How do you measure agentic commerce?
Combine three views: AI referrals, the movement in brand search and direct traffic, and demand outside your own channels. Referrals alone miss shoppers who choose in the AI tool and arrive later.
Sources
- How Retailers Can Reinvent the Digital Flywheel for Agentic Commerce (BCG, 21 Oct 2026)
- AI heeft al veranderd hoe consumenten zoeken, kopen is de volgende stap (Emerce, 13 Oct 2026)
- Nederlanders vertrouwen AI-informatie vaker dan winkeladvies (Deloitte, 14 Jul 2026)
- Growing smarter together (bol, 26 Mar 2026)
- Kwart Nederlanders gebruikt AI bij het shoppen (Adyen, 15 May 2025)
- 42% of consumers now use AI tools to shop (NIQ, 5 May 2026)
- Onderzoek Google: zichtbaarheid in retail verschuift (Emerce Industry Wire, 30 Apr 2026)